The simulation summarized in the last post was the result from the start of the game only. In other words, how would each lineup do at the start of the game.
I reran the simulation by reprogramming the simulator to run for nine innings – beginning each new inning with the batter who was on deck at the end of the previous inning.
Each combination (there are 362,880) was simulated 1000 times. I took the top 363 results and totalled up the number of times each player appeared in each position in the order.
The overwhelming favorite to lead off is Kevin Pillar and the top four seem quite certain.
|Position in Batting Order|
So, here is what the maximum path through the table says the Jays need to do:
… and then send me a modest slice of the pie after they win it all :-þ