More fun with the Jays batting order

The simulation summarized in the last post was the result from the start of the game only.  In other words, how would each lineup do at the start of the game.

I reran the simulation by reprogramming the simulator to run for nine innings – beginning each new inning with the batter who was on deck at the end of the previous inning.

Each combination (there are 362,880) was simulated 1000 times.  I took the top 363 results and totalled up the number of times each player appeared in each position in the order.

The overwhelming favorite to lead off is Kevin Pillar and the top four seem quite certain.

Position in Batting Order
Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Kevin Pillar 335 0 0 0 2 7 9 3 7
Troy Tulowitzki 8 85 35 6 71 54 42 28 34
Jose Bautista 16 17 151 66 29 35 19 19 11
Steve Pearce 0 3 13 175 44 37 28 32 31
Josh Donaldson 4 247 51 3 40 10 1 2 5
Luke Maile 0 0 0 10 35 62 90 81 85
Russell Martin 0 9 13 71 63 66 49 52 40
Justin Smoak 0 0 97 31 47 46 48 49 45
Darwin Barney 0 2 3 1 32 46 77 97 105

So, here is what the maximum path through the table says the Jays need to do:

Pillar/Donaldson/Bautista/Pearce/Tulowitzki/Martin/Maile/Smoak/Barney

… and then send me a modest slice of the pie after they win it all :-þ

 

Your team is under .500 … give this a whirl

Steve Phillips of TSN.ca wrote an article about the Jays batting order … which got me thinking … what does my simulator say?  The simulation uses everyone’s tendencies of the past four seasons as input … not just who is hot at this time.

And … the simulator says the Jays should be using this order (and it’s not even close):

Kevin Pillar
Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Bautista
Russell Martin
Josh Donaldson
Steve Pearce
Justin Smoak
Darwin Barney
Luke Maile

C’mon boys … today’s order didn’t work so give it a whirl.